In a highly anticipated clash, in-state rivals TCU football and Houston are set to face off on Friday night, marking one of the recent additions to the Big 12 schedule. Since joining the conference last season, the Cougars have struggled with a disappointing 2-9 record in conference play, including an 0-2 start this season. Overall, Houston stands at 1-4 in 2024, while TCU boasts a 3-2 record, with a balanced 1-1 in conference matchups. The Horned Frogs triumphed in their first Big 12 contest against the Cougars last year and have now claimed victory in nine consecutive encounters. This season, TCU has struggled against the spread with a 1-4 record, while Houston has fared slightly better at 2-3.
The game will unfold at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas, kicking off at 7:30 p.m. ET. Initially opened as an 18.5-point favorite, TCU now sits at a 16.5-point advantage, according to the latest odds from SportsLine, with the over/under set at 51 points. Before making any predictions on the Houston vs. TCU matchup, it’s worth consulting the insights from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
This model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times and has yielded impressive results since its inception, amassing over $2,000 in profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated picks against the spread. In an impressive streak, it went 6-0 on all top-rated picks during Week 5, rewarding those who followed its advice.
Focusing on the TCU vs. Houston matchup, the following betting lines are available:
- Spread: TCU -16.5
- Over/Under: 51 points
- Money Line: TCU -820, Houston +548
- Streaming: FuboTV (available for a free trial)
Why Houston Could Cover
Houston possesses a formidable defense capable of hampering TCU’s offense, which ranks among the top ten teams in the nation for fewest passing yards allowed. If the Horned Frogs struggle to establish their aerial attack, their offense could falter, as they are not designed for a strong ground game. TCU averages a mere 101 rushing yards per game, placing them 115th out of 134 FBS teams, while their dismal average of 3.3 yards per carry mirrors this ranking.
Furthermore, Houston has shown notable success against the spread, standing at 6-3 after straight-up losses since last season. In contrast, TCU has a poor record of 2-5 against the spread following a victory since the start of 2023, achieving a mere 28.6% cover rate—one of the lowest in the Big 12.
Why TCU Could Cover
On the offensive front, TCU football ranks third in the Big 12 for scoring and fourth nationally in passing offense, making them a formidable opponent. In their recent victory over Kansas, the Horned Frogs tallied three passing touchdowns, equaling the total number Houston has achieved throughout the entire season. Quarterback Josh Hoover leads the Big 12 in total yards (1,768) and total touchdowns (16), showcasing his prowess on the field with elite receiver Jack Bech by his side.
After transferring from LSU last year, Bech has had a breakout 2024 season, standing second in the FBS for receiving yards (647) and third for receiving touchdowns (six), leading the Big 12 in both categories. He has consistently delivered, recording at least eight receptions and 131 yards in each of his last three games, during which he has scored five touchdowns. Complementing Bech is Eric McAlister, who has also enjoyed back-to-back games exceeding 100 receiving yards.
How to Make Houston vs. TCU Picks
The SportsLine model has run 10,000 simulations of the TCU vs. Houston game, and the results suggest a leaning towards the Over. Additionally, the model has generated a point-spread pick that is successful in over 50% of its simulations. For those interested in the precise pick, it can be found on SportsLine.
